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UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) sea level rise data provides projections of changes in absolute sea level rise in waters surrounding the UK and changes in relative sea level for coastal areas, where the influence of land movements is considered (and data included here) over the period 1999-2099. Data are provided for three emissions scenarios: Low (IPCC SRES: B1), Medium (IPCC SRES: A1B), and High (IPCC SRES: A1FI). These projections also include a high risk, low probability scenario (known as the H++ scenario). The H++ scenario has been included to reflect the fact that there considerable uncertainties about the upper limit of absolute sea-level rise. This scenario relies, in part, on expert judgement and is designed to encourage users to think about thresholds of existing systems and the limits to adaptation. Note: Unlike some other components of UKCP09, the sea level projections are not probabilistic. They provide a frequency distribution of projections based on results from eleven models contributed to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The model projections of sea level rise have not been weighted based on comparison with historical sea level observations, and are therefore treated as equally plausible. More information about the sea level rise methodology (including assumptions and caveats) is given in Chapter 3 of the Marine & coastal projections report.
Past (observed) climate and future climate scenario projections data that were produced as part of the UK climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) service. The data produced by the UK Met Office providing information on plausible changes in 21st century climate for the UK helping to inform on adaptation to a changing climate. A UKCP09 website provided climate information for the UK and its regions. Through the website user interface climate statistics over the UK could be calculated dynamically. The data that informs these calculations is made available here. UKCP09 provides future climate projections for land and marine regions as well as observed (past) climate data for the UK. Additionally a copy of the projections csv archive is provided. These are zip files of batch processed UKCP09 data outputs. The projections improve upon the previous climate projections (UKCIP 2002) by incorporating more recent scientific understanding, providing data at a higher spatial resolution and providing an approach to dealing with uncertainties through probabilistic projections.
The UKCP09 marine & coastal storm surge data provides projections of surge height for the linear trend, the 5th and 95th percentiles throughout the 21st Century for 2, 10, 20 and 50 year return period events (including statistical significance) over a 12km coastal grid. Data are available for a medium emissions scenario (IPCC SRES: A1B), to reflect some aspects of the uncertainty in modelling global and regional climate change eleven different variants of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3 were used to drive eleven corresponding variants of the HadRM3 regional model, which in turn drove the National Oceanography Centre storm surge model (POLCS3). Note: The projections do not cover all plausible future outcomes and unlike some other components of UKCP09, the storm surge height projections are not probabilistic, although a range is provided based on the assumption that the 11 simulations are equally likely. More information about the storm surge methodology (including assumptions and caveats) are given in Chapter 4 of the UKCP09 Marine & coastal projections report and the technical note on storm projections.
This dataset contains a set of observed climate indices on a 5km resolution grid. The data are derived from daily temperature and precipitation grids (see related dataset) to provide annual indicies: 9 temperature based indices (for example summer heatwave duration); and 12 precipitation indices (for example maximum 1 day precipitation amount). The data are provide in CF-1.5 compliant NetCDF format. The data are additionally provided in ESRI-ascii format, suitable for ingestion in GIS applications, and a simple timeseries format for users requiring a limited number of points.
The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) projections of temperature from low, medium and high emissions scenarios' equivalent global temperature changes. They are probabilistic climate predictions based on families of runs of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate models HadCM3, HadRM3 and HadSM3, plus climate models from other climate centres contributing to IPCC AR4 and CMIP3. The equivalent changes in global temperatures are taken from three emissions scenarios: low (IPCC SRES: B1), medium (IPCC SRES: A1B), and high (IPCC SRES: A1FI). Each scenario provides estimates over seven 30 year period averages: 2010-2039, 2030s = 2020-2049, 2040s = 2030-2059, 2050s = 2040-2069, 2060s = 2050-2079, 2070s = 2060-2089, 2080s = 2070-2099. Temperature changes are given relative to 1961-1990.
The UK climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) observed climate provides data for a range of climate variables (for example, temperature, pressure, vapour pressure, rainfall, snowfall, sunshine) over the climate averaging period 1961-1990. The observed data is provided over the UK at grid box resolutions of 25km and 5km. The observed data refers to data that has been directly measured and obtained in UK from a network of synoptic observations and weather stations. These data are commonly processed to convert irregularly spaced point observations to a regular grid. The observed climate data can be used both to explore past climate trends, to construct and validate climate models and to provide a baseline to construct climate differences.
The UK climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) marine and coastal multi-level ocean projections provide detailed information on the potential future implications of climate change on the marine environment in UK waters. Marine parameters are provided for projections of changes in water temperature, salinity, currents and stability of the water column over a 12km marine grid, for the 30 year time period 2070-2099 (and the baseline period 1961-1990) for the medium emissions scenario (IPCC SRES: A1B). Note: The multi-level ocean projections are based on a single model simulation. In contrast to some other components of UKCP09 these are not probabilistic projections, meaning they do not quantify the range of future changes associated with modelling uncertainties or natural climate variability. More information about the variables and methodology (including assumptions and caveats) are given in Chapter 6 of the Marine & coastal projections report (see linked documentation).
This dataset contains a set of reference long term averages for observed climate variables that have been spatially averaged over a set of 14 administrative regions and 23 river basins across the British Isles (see links to maps and lists below). Where possible, reference climatologies for each of the periods 1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 are available for each variable. The availability of a variable for a given reference period was dependant on sufficient data for that variable within the reference period. Each regional value is an average of the 5km x 5km grid cell values that fall within it. The data were derived from the Met Office gridded land surface climate observations – long term averages at 5km resolution (See related dataset) and are provided as space delimited text files. The 14 administrative regions used within UKCP09 were: - East Midlands - East of England - East Scotland - London - North East England - North Scotland - North West England - Northern Ireland - South East England - South West England - Wales - West Midlands - West Scotland - Yorkshire & The Humber The 23 river basin regions used within UKCP09 were: - Anglian - Argyll - Clyde - Dee - Forth - Humber - Neagh Bann - North East Scotland - North Eastern Ireland - North Highland - North West England - North Western Ireland - Northumbria - Orkney and Shetland - Severn - Solway - South East England - South West England - Tay - Thames - Tweed - West Highland - Western Wales
This dataset contains a set of observed monthly climate variables on a 5km resolution grid. The observations are derived from 16 daily climate variables that have been averaged (e.g. daily maximum temperature) or summed (e.g. monthly total precipitation) over calendar months. The input station data originate from the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (A version of MIDAS is also available through CEDA, although incremental developments to the database such as quality control and data recovery activities may result in some differences compared to the database at the time of production of the UKCP09 data). The gridding process accounts for effects such as latitude, longitude, altitude, coastal influence, and the effect of urban land through the use of normalisation with respect to monthly 1961 – 1990 climate normals, and in the case of some variables a regression model. For more details about the construction see Perry and Hollis (2005). The data are provide in CF-1.5 compliant NetCDF format. The data are additionally provided in ESRI-ascii format, suitable for ingestion in GIS applications, and a simple timeseries format for users requiring a limited number of points.
The UK climate projections (UKCP09) comma separated value (CSV) archive consists of probabilistic data for various climate parameters. Two products are available: firstly, zip files of batch processed UKCP09 data outputs that were provided as an alternative to having to generate multiple requests on the UKCP09 website; and, secondly, additional products that were not available under from the UKCP09 website. These are provided as raw data files. List of products: 1. UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land: Grouped by - variable and location and - variable and temporal average. 2. UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Marine Regions: Grouped by - emissions scenario, - location, - temporal average, - time period, - variable, - variable and location and - variable and temporal average. 3. Projections of Trend in Storm Surge for UK Waters: all data is grouped into one file. 4. Projections of Sea Level Rise for UK Waters: Grouped by - emissions scenario, - location and - emissions scenario and location. 5. Global average temperature change values for each time period and emissions scenario: - all cumulative distribution function (CDF) data in a single file - all sampled data in a single file. 6. UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land conditioned by a given global average temperature change: Grouped by - probability level and - variable and probability level 7. Spatially Coherent Projections of UK Climate Change over Land: grouped by variable, temporal average and scenario The file naming convention is provided in the documentation.