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  • RAPIT was looking at the problem of estimating the risk of the collapse of the overturning circulation. Using modern statistical methods for the analysis of complex numerical models, large ensembles of two Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models (HADCM3 and CHIME) were analysed. This dataset collection contains meteorology, climatology and ocean outputs from ensemble runs xfel, xfgb, xfha and xgym. Studies of large excursions of the strength of the overturning in existing control runs were used to guide the choice of metrics and diagnostics.