These climate projections for the North-West European Shelf Seas update the shelf seas component of UKCP09 Marine Report (Lowe et al, 2009) and were funded by the MINERVA project. This dataset contains three ensemble exemplars for model output based on the QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections) ensemble of HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) runs downscaled with the POLCOMS (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System) under SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissons Scenarios - A1B business-as-usual with medium emissions) conditions, from 1952-2098 for which 30-year means anomalies have been calculated from monthly mean data for each of the 12 months. A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of HadCM3 has been downscaled with the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Each of the 11 ensemble members has been downscaled as transient simulations (from 1952-2098) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The PPE (QUMP) was designed to span the range of uncertainty associated with model parameter uncertainty in the atmosphere of the driving global climate model. POLCOMS was run at 12 km resolution, with 32 vertical levels using s-coordinates over the NW European Shelf Seas domain (-18.3 to 14 degrees East, 43 to 63.56 degrees North). Monthly statistics of the model results were recorded. Further details can be found in Tinker et al (2015).

The Grid-to-Grid (G2G) river flow model projections comprise an ensemble of natural and artificially influenced (AI) estimates of daily mean river flows (m3s-1). These flow projections are for a historical and future period spanning 1st December 1980 to 30th November 2080 and reflect scenarios of change in both climate and artificial (anthropogenic) influences (abstractions and discharges). The historical and future projections are available in two formats: (i) 1 km × 1 km gridded daily mean river flows (m3s-1) for two spatial regions: Natural river flows across Great Britain, and Artificially influenced river flows across England (ii) Time series of daily flows for 626 catchments across England The climate projections consist of an ensemble of bias-corrected UKCP18 Regional Climate Model (RCM) output. A further 4 hydrological connectivity datasets provide flow directions, upstream areas and coastal/gauged locations. Further details are provided in a linked Data Document. Three future scenarios of artificial influences are considered: (a) Sustainability (SUS), (b) Business as usual (BAU) and (c) Economic Growth (EG). The dataset is an output from the CS-NOW project (Climate services for a Net Zero resilient world - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)), commissioned by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Publication of these data is also supported by the Natural Environment Research Council award number NE/X019063/1 as part of the Hydro-JULES programme delivering National Capability.

These climate projections for the North-West European Shelf Seas update the shelf seas component of UKCP09 Marine Report (Lowe et al, 2009) and were funded by the MINERVA project. This dataset contains ensemble statistics for model output based on the QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections) ensemble of HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) runs downscaled with the POLCOMS (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System) under SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissons Scenarios - A1B business-as-usual with medium emissions) conditions, from 1952-2098 for which 30-year means anomalies have been calculated from monthly mean data for each of the 12 months. A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of HadCM3 has been downscaled with the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Each of the 11 ensemble members has been downscaled as transient simulations (from 1952-2098) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The PPE (QUMP) was designed to span the range of uncertainty associated with model parameter uncertainty in the atmosphere of the driving global climate model. POLCOMS was run at 12 km resolution, with 32 vertical levels using s-coordinates over the NW European Shelf Seas domain (-18.3 to 14 degrees East, 43 to 63.56 degrees North). Monthly statistics of the model results were recorded. Further details can be found in Tinker et al (2015).