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Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum infection in Larch fragments in Scotland

This dataset maps the risks of Phytophthora ramorum infection for 79062 larch fragments identified in Scotland, of which 79060 were assigned a risk score. Two fragments without climate and/or habitat suitability scores were excluded. Fragment risk scores integrate multiple risk factors. The primary risk factor is climate suitability for P. ramorum using pathogen-specific temperature-dependent growth curves and a relative humidity threshold. Other risk factors integrated are proximity to larch/infected larch within 500m or 5000m and other (non-Larch) wider environment infections within 1500m. Presence of alternative hosts are scored using habitat suitability within the fragment for sporulating hosts (Vaccinium myrtillus, V. vitis-idaea, Acrostaphylos uva-versi) and the reservoir host Rhododendron ponticum. Additionally, proximity to inspected premises with confirmed infections and the presence of water courses are also assessed. The maximum possible risk score for a larch fragment is 12. Fragments were also classified as low, medium or high risk. Full details about this dataset can be found at https://doi.org/10.5285/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97

Simple

Date (Publication)
2025-10-17
Date (Creation)
2025-09-10
Identifier
https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97
Identifier
doi: / 10.5285/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97
Other citation details
Barwell, L., Turvey, K., Amankwaa, G., Asaaga, F., Cooke, D.E.L., Mitchell, R., Purse, B.V. (2025). Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum infection in Larch fragments in Scotland. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre 10.5285/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97
Point of contact
  UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - Louise Barwell
Author
  UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - Barwell, L.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1643-1046
Author
  UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - Turvey, K.
https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2611-3391
Author
  UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - Amankwaa, G.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0334-5867
Author
  UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - Asaaga, F.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2675-9464
Author
  James Hutton Institute - Cooke, D.E.L.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9154-7954
Author
  James Hutton Institute - Mitchell, R.
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8151-2769
Author
  UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - Purse, B.V.
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5140-2710
Owner
  UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Custodian
  NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
Publisher
  NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
  • Habitats and Biotopes
Access constraints
otherRestrictions Other restrictions
Other constraints
no limitations
Use constraints
otherRestrictions Other restrictions
Other constraints
This resource is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence
Use constraints
otherRestrictions Other restrictions
Other constraints
If you reuse this data, you should cite: Barwell, L., Turvey, K., Amankwaa, G., Asaaga, F., Cooke, D.E.L., Mitchell, R., Purse, B.V. (2025). Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum infection in Larch fragments in Scotland. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre https://doi.org/10.5285/f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97
Spatial representation type
grid Grid
Spatial representation type
vector Vector
Distance
15015  urn:ogc:def:uom:EPSG::9001
Metadata language
EnglishEnglish
Character set
utf8 UTF8
Topic category
  • Environment
Begin date
2013-01-01
End date
2023-12-31
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S
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Unique resource identifier
OSGB 1936 / British National Grid
Distribution format
  • TIFF ()

  • geopackage ()

Distributor
  NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
OnLine resource
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Supporting information

Supporting information available to assist in re-use of this dataset

Hierarchy level
dataset Dataset
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dataset

Conformance result

Date (Publication)
2010-12-08
Statement
We employed an iterative and collaborative co-production process that brought together stakeholders with diverse expertise from across Scotland’s plant health sector, including forestry, conservation, horticulture, and government agencies to co-design the risk framework. Larch fragments in Scotland were compiled from the National Forest Estate Sub-compartments Scotland 2019, the Native Woodland Survey of Scotland, survey data, Statutory Plant Health Notices and larch layers from Scottish Forestry, and a Phytophthora database. Any areas felled since 2013 were identified and removed using the National Forest Inventory GB from 2013 to 2023 and completed Statutory Plant Health Notices. Key risk factors and their scoring were agreed with 15 cross-sectoral stakeholders through a self-completion survey and two workshops. The risk scoring has been adjusted to reduce the emphasis on proximity to inspected premises as a pathway of spread, reflecting stakeholder perspectives on improved biosecurity practices in trade. The previous risk analysis for P. ramorum infection for Scotland’s larch fragments (https://doi.org/10.5285/29726cda-09f5-4661-8fd4-ddaa5555466a) has been updated to reflect the removal of larch since 2013 through Statutory Plant Health Notices and other clear-felling, to include new P. ramorum detection data in larch woodlands and inspected premises provided by Scottish Forestry and SASA. In addition, new climate suitability models of pathogen growth are used to score risk of establishment and new species distribution models have been used to score risks of transmission from alternative host species of P. ramorum. The scored fragment data were intersected with the boundaries of local authorities, Scottish Forestry Conservancies, and P. ramorum policy zones to summarise the distribution of risks across regions in Scotland. The final report was peer reviewed by the Plant Health Centre. In addition, a knowledge integration and validation workshop (November 13, 2024) examined the adequacy of the outputs for horizon scanning and decision-making across sectors. Validation of the climate suitability models for P. ramorum has been attempted using independent UK and European detections for P. ramorum. This spatial risk framework cannot yet be fully validated until future detection data are available, because previous detections are used within the model and are not independent of the risk scores assigned. However, the previous risk framework for Larch has been cross-validated against subsequent, independent P. ramorum detections, as proof of concept.
File identifier
f6809e00-91cb-494d-babd-5d60d938ad97 XML
Metadata language
EnglishEnglish
Character set
ISO/IEC 8859-1 (also known as Latin 1) 8859 Part 1
Hierarchy level
dataset Dataset
Hierarchy level name
dataset
Date stamp
2025-11-13T16:19:16
Metadata standard name
UK GEMINI
Metadata standard version
2.3
Point of contact
  NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg , Lancaster , LA1 4AP , UK
https://eidc.ac.uk/
 
 

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Keywords

GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
Habitats and Biotopes

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