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Perturbed CO2 forecasts of the February 2019 European heatwave

This dataset contains a range of model output from both operational runs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) CY45R1 model forecasts and hindcasts and output from specific experimental runs.

These data were produced to support the article "Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability" (see citation and link to paper elsewhere on this record).

Within the archived products the directory tree structure is as follows:

Top level domain splitting:

>EU

Model data at 0.25 degree resolution for the region contained within (33 to 73.5N / -27 to 45E).

>GLOB

Model data at 0.25 degree resolution for the full globe.

Below which there are sub-directories as follows (note, M-climate is only available for the EU domain):

>>ENS​

Data from the operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) forecast.

>>M-climate

Data from EPS hindcasts used to construct model climate. See https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/M-climate%2C+the+ENS+Model+Climate.

>>pi-CO2

Data from EPS forecast that replicates operations *but for* reduced CO2 concentrations, set to 285 ppm.

>>incr-CO2

Data from EPS forecast that replicates operations *but for* increased CO2 concentrations, set to 600 ppm.

Within these runs the data are then available on the following level types:

>>>pl

Data on pressure levels.

>>>sfc

Data on single levels.

Ensemble data are further split into sub-directories as follows:

>>>>cf

Control forecast member.

>>>>pf

Perturbed forecast members.

The specific variables available within each netCDF file can differ depending on the region and experiment type (eg. the operational ENS forecasts whose initialisation dates match those of the perturbed CO2 experiments have more variables available than the others). All the datasets & variables required to reproduce the analysis are described in the paper.

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. Nicholas J. Leach, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen, Tim Palmer. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2021, 118 (49) e2112087118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2112087118

Simple

Date (Publication)
2021-11-17T12:05:32
Date (Creation)
2021-11-17T12:05:32
Identifier
https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/dd6a312c701f47778390de50cd052071
Identifier
NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis / dd6a312c701f47778390de50cd052071
Identifier
doi / 10.5285/dd6a312c701f47778390de50cd052071
Author
  European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) - author
Author
  Unavailable - Leach, Nicholas J. ( author )
Custodian
  NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis - custodian
RAL Space , STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus , Didcot , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
Distributor
  NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis - distributor
RAL Space , STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus , Didcot , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
Principal investigator
  Unavailable - Allen, Myles ( principal_investigator )
Principal investigator
  Unavailable - Leach, Nicholas J. ( principal_investigator )
Principal investigator
  Unavailable - Palmer, Tim ( principal_investigator )
Principal investigator
  Unavailable - Weisheimer, Antje ( principal_investigator )
pointofContact
  NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis - point_of_contact
RAL Space , STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus , Didcot , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
Publisher
  NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis - publisher
RAL Space , STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus , Didcot , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
Maintenance and update frequency
notPlanned Not planned
Update scope
dataset Dataset
Keywords
  • CO2
  • ECMWF
  • European heatwave
GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
  • atmospheric conditions
Access constraints
otherRestrictions Other restrictions
Other constraints
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use constraints
otherRestrictions Other restrictions
Other constraints
Under the following licence https://artefacts.ceda.ac.uk/licences/missing_licence.pdf, appropriate use of these data may fall under unstated use. This message is intended as guidance, always read the full licence. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Spatial representation type
grid Grid
Metadata language
EnglishEnglish
Topic category
  • Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
N
S
E
W
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Begin date
2019-01-14T00:00:00
End date
2019-03-01T00:00:00
Unique resource identifier
WGS 84
Distribution format
  • Data are netCDF formatted ()

Distributor
  NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis - Data Center Contact
RAL Space , STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus , Didcot , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
OnLine resource
CEDA Data Catalogue Page

Detail and access information for the resource

OnLine resource
DOWNLOAD

Download Data

OnLine resource
IFS documentation

No further details.

OnLine resource
Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. Nicholas J. Leach, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen, Tim Palmer. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Dec 2021, 118 (49) e2112087118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2112087118

No further details.

Hierarchy level
dataset Dataset

Conformance result

Date (Publication)
2010-12-08
Statement
Data were generated using the ECMWF IFS CY45R1 model at Tco639 resolution. Data are either operational forecast data, or experiments that use an identical model version and setup to operations in which the CO2 concentration has been perturbed. These experiments would replicate operations but for the CO2 perturbations. Data were post-processed using cdo1.9.8 and NCO4.7.2. The data were then sent to the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) for archiving.
File identifier
dd6a312c701f47778390de50cd052071 XML
Metadata language
EnglishEnglish
Character set
8-bit variable size UCS Transfer Format, based on ISO/IEC 10646 UTF8
Hierarchy level
dataset Dataset
Date stamp
2025-11-15T03:21:36
Metadata standard name
UK GEMINI
Metadata standard version
2.3
Point of contact
  NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
RAL Space , STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus , Didcot , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
 
 

Overviews

Spatial extent

N
S
E
W
thumbnail


Keywords

GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
atmospheric conditions

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