Data for Figure 10.12 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Figure 10.12 shows Southeastern South America positive mean precipitation trend and its drivers during 1951-2014.

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How to cite this dataset

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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:

Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A.A. Sörensson, M. Almazroui, A. Dosio, W.J. Gutowski, R. Haarsma, R. Hamdi, B. Hewitson, W.-T. Kwon, B.L. Lamptey, D. Maraun, T.S. Stephenson, I. Takayabu, L. Terray, A. Turner, and Z. Zuo, 2021: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1363–1512, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.012.

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Figure subpanels

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The figure has 4 subpanels. Data for 3 subpanels (b-d) is provided. Subpanel (a) is a schematic.

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List of data provided

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The data is annual December-Jannuary (DJF) precipitation means for:

- Observed and model relative anomalies over 1951-2014 with respect to 1995-2014 average over south-eastern South America (26.25°S–38.75°S, 56.25°W–66.25°W)

- Observed precipitation trends 1951-2014 South America

- Trends in precipitation over 1951-2014 over south-eastern South America (26.25°S–38.75°S, 56.25°W–66.25°W)

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Data provided in relation to figure

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Panel (b):

Observed (CRU TS, black line, and CRU TS no-running mean (bars)) and Model (MPI-ESM runs with min (brown) and max (green) trends) precipitation rate relative anomalies over 1951-2014 with respect to 1995-2014 average over south-eastern South America (26.25°S–38.75°S, 56.25°W–66.25°W):

- Data file:

Fig_10_12_panel-b_timeseries.csv

Panel (c):

Observed precipitation OLS linear trends 1951-2014 over South America:

- Data files:

Fig_10_12_panel-c_mapplot_pr_trend_CRU_single_trend.nc,

Fig_10_12_panel-c_mapplot_pr_trend_GPCC_single_trend.nc

Panel (d):

OLS linear trends in precipitation over 1951-2014 over south-eastern South America (26.25°S–38.75°S, 56.25°W–66.25°W): observed data (GPCC, CRU TS: black crosses), individual members of CMIP6 historical (red circles), and box-and-whisker plots for the SMILEs: MIROC6, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, MPI-ESM, d4PDF (grey shading):

- Data file:

Fig_10_12_panel-d_trends.csv

Acronyms:

CRU TS- Climatic Research Unit Time Series,

CMIP - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,

SMILEs -single model initial-condition large ensembles,

MIROC - Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate,

CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,

MPI - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie,

ESM - Earth System Model,

d4PDF - Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, OLS - ordinary least squares regression.

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Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data

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The code for ESMValTool is provided.

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Sources of additional information

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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:

- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website

- Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 10)

- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 10, which contains details on the input data used in Table 10.SM.11

- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.