Data for Figure 10.21 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Figure 10.21 shows projected Mediterranean summer warming.

---------------------------------------------------

How to cite this dataset

---------------------------------------------------

When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:

Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A.A. Sörensson, M. Almazroui, A. Dosio, W.J. Gutowski, R. Haarsma, R. Hamdi, B. Hewitson, W.-T. Kwon, B.L. Lamptey, D. Maraun, T.S. Stephenson, I. Takayabu, L. Terray, A. Turner, and Z. Zuo, 2021: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1363–1512, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.012.

---------------------------------------------------

Figure subpanels

---------------------------------------------------

The figure has 4 subpanels. Data for all subpanels is provided.

---------------------------------------------------

List of data provided

---------------------------------------------------

The data is annual summer (JJA) surface air temperature means for:

- Modelled anomalies 2015-2100 with respect to 1995-2014 average for the Mediterranean mean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N)

- Modelled change until 2081‒2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over the Mediterranean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N)

- Trends 2015-2050 for the Mediterranean mean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N)

- Modelled trends over 2015-2050

- Modelled Mediterranean summer vs global warming

---------------------------------------------------

Data provided in relation to figure

---------------------------------------------------

Panel (a):

- Data files:

Fig_10_21_panel-a_timeseries.csv,

Fig_10_21_panel-a_boxplot.csv;

Modelled JJA surface air temperature anomalies 2015-2100 (baseline 1995-2014) for the Mediterranean mean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N, CMIP5 (blue), CMIP6 (dark red), HighResMIP (orange), CORDEX EUR-44 (light blue), CORDEX EUR-11 (green)) and change until 2081‒2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages (SSP1-2.6 dark blue, SSP2-4.5 yellow, SSP3-7.0 red, SSP5-8.5 dark red)

Panel (b):

- Data file: Fig_10_21_panel-b_trends.csv;

Modelled JJA OLS linear trends in surface air temperature 2015-2050 for the Mediterranean mean (lon: 10°W-40°E, lat: 25°N-50°N) CMIP5 (blue circles), CMIP6 (dark red circles), HighResMIP (orange circles), CORDEX EUR-44 (light blue circles), CORDEX EUR-11 (green circles)) and box-and-whisker plots for the SMILEs: MIROC6, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, MPI-ESM (grey shading)

Panel (c):

- Data files:

Fig_10_21_panel-c_mapplot_tas_cmip5_mean_trend_future_tas_cmip5_maps_trend_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,

Fig_10_21_panel-c_mapplot_tas_cmip6_mean_trend_future_tas_cmip6_maps_trend_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,

Fig_10_21_panel-c_mapplot_tas_cordex_11_mean_trend_future_tas_cordex_11_maps_trend_native_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,

Fig_10_21_panel-c_mapplot_tas_cordex_44_mean_trend_future_tas_cordex_44_maps_trend_native_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,

Fig_10_21_panel-c_mapplot_tas_hrmip_mean_trend_future_tas_hrmip_maps_trend_05_MultiModelMean_trend.nc;

Modelled OLS linear surface air temperature trends over 2015-2050 of CMIP5, CMIP6, HighResMIP, CORDEX EUR-44, and CORDEX EUR-11 ensemble means

Panel (d):

- Data file: Fig_10_21_panel-d_GWLRWL.csv;

Modelled Mediterranean summer (JJA) vs global warming under CMIP5 (RCP2.6 dark blue dashed line, RCP4.5 light blue dashed line, RCP6.0 orange dashed line and RCP8.5 red dashed line) and CMIP6 (SSP1-2.6 dark blue line, SSP2-4.5 yellow line, SSP3-7.0 red line, SSP5-8.5 dark red line) scenarios.

Acronyms:

CMIP - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,

Cordex – Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment,

HighResMIP - High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project,

SSP- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,

SMILEs -single model initial-condition large ensembles,

MIROC - Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate,

CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,

MPI - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, ESM - Earth System Model,

RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway,

OLS - ordinary least squares regression.

---------------------------------------------------

Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data

---------------------------------------------------

The code for ESMValTool is provided.

---------------------------------------------------

Sources of additional information

---------------------------------------------------

The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:

- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website

- Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 10)

- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 10, which contains details on the input data used in Table 10.SM.11

- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.