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Initialised seasonal forecast of the 20th Century

This dataset contains initialised seasonal hindcast experiments for the 20th century, produced using a version of the ECMWF's Intergrated Forecasting System (IFS), and initialised from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-20C/CERA-20C). Two types of hindcast experiment are included in this dataset:

CSF-20C (Coupled Seasonal Forecasts): This is a hindcast performed with the model fully coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) ocean model, initialised from CERA-20C reanalysis data.

ASF-20C (Atmospheric Seasonal Forecasts): This is a hindcast performed with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary conditions at the surface, initialised form ERA-20C reanalysis data.

Hindcasts were started every year between 1901-2009 (inclusive) on the 1st February, 1st May, 1st August and 1st November and are run out for four months from the start date. For each start date, there are either 51 or 25 ensemble members (depending on the season/hindcast).

Monthly mean values for the following variables have been archived here on CEDA (in alphabetical order):

LHF (latent heat-flux)

OLR (outgoing long-wave radiation)

PREC (precipitation)

SHF (sensible heat-flux)

SIC (sea-ice concentration)

SLP (sea-level pressure)

SST (sea surface temperature)

T2 (2m temperature)

U250 (zonal wind at 250 hPa level)

U850 (zonal wind at 850 hPa level)

Us (10m zonal wind speed)

V250 (meridional wind at 250 hPa level)

V850 (meridional wind at 850 hPa level)

Vs (10m meridional wind speed)

Z500 (geopotential at 500 hPa level)

Files for each ensemble member are archived separately and the filetree is in the following format:

[EXPname]/[VARname]monthly_[EXPname]_[INITmonth]START_ENSmems/[VARname]monthly_[YEAR]_M[ENSnum].nc

Where:

[EXPname] =CSF-20C or ASF-20C

[VARname] = Z500, Vs, V850, ... etc.

[INITmonth] = Feb, May, Aug or Nov

[YEAR] =1901, 1902, 1903, ... etc.

[ENSnum] =0, 1, 2, 3, ... etc.

More details of these hindcasts and some previous analysis of these datasets have appeared in the following papers:

Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A., & Palmer, T. (2017). Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi‐decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(703), 917-926.

O'Reilly, C. H., Heatley, J., MacLeod, D., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Schaller, N., & Woollings, T. (2017). Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(11), 5729-5738.

MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Palmer, T., & Weisheimer, A. (2018). Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atmospheric Science Letters, 19(5), e815.

Parker, T., Woollings, T., Weisheimer, A., O'Reilly, C., Baker, L., & Shaffrey, L. (2019). Seasonal predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation from a jet stream perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(16), 10159-10167.

Weisheimer, A., Decremer, D., MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Stockdale, T. N., Johnson, S., & Palmer, T. N. (2019). How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 140-159.

Weisheimer, A., Befort, D. J., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T., O’Reilly, C., & Strømmen, K. (2020). Seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (2020).

Simple

Date (Publication)
2020-05-04T13:13:11
Date (Creation)
2020-05-04T13:13:11
Identifier
https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45
Identifier
Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) / 6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45
Author
  Unavailable - Weisheimer, Antje ( author )
Author
  Unavailable - O'Reilly, Christopher ( author )
Custodian
  Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) - custodian
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory , Harwell , Oxon , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
Distributor
  Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) - distributor
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory , Harwell , Oxon , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
Principal investigator
  Unavailable - O'Reilly, Christopher ( principal_investigator )
pointofContact
  Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) - point_of_contact
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory , Harwell , Oxon , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
Publisher
  Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) - publisher
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory , Harwell , Oxon , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
Maintenance and update frequency
notPlanned Not planned
Update scope
dataset Dataset
Keywords
  • Seasonal
  • Forecast
  • model
  • atmospheric
GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
  • atmospheric conditions
Access constraints
otherRestrictions Other restrictions
Other constraints
Public data: access to these data is available to both registered and non-registered users.
Use constraints
otherRestrictions Other restrictions
Other constraints
Under the following licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/, appropriate use of these data may fall under any use. This message is intended as guidance, always read the full licence. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.
Spatial representation type
grid Grid
Metadata language
EnglishEnglish
Topic category
  • Climatology, meteorology, atmosphere
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Begin date
1900-01-01T00:00:00
End date
2010-12-31T00:00:00
Unique resource identifier
WGS 84
Distribution format
  • Data are netCDF formatted. ()

Distributor
  Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) - Data Center Contact
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory , Harwell , Oxon , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
OnLine resource
CEDA Data Catalogue Page

Detail and access information for the resource

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Hierarchy level
dataset Dataset

Conformance result

Date (Publication)
2010-12-08
Statement
Data downloaded from the ECMWF MARS archive at the resolution provided here and converted to netcdf (from grin). The data were then delivered to the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis for archiving.
File identifier
6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45 XML
Metadata language
EnglishEnglish
Character set
8-bit variable size UCS Transfer Format, based on ISO/IEC 10646 UTF8
Hierarchy level
dataset Dataset
Date stamp
2025-11-15T03:19:22
Metadata standard name
UK GEMINI
Metadata standard version
2.3
Point of contact
  Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA)
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory , Harwell , Oxon , OX11 0QX , United Kingdom
01235446432
 
 

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Keywords

GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
atmospheric conditions

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