Data for Figure 10.19 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Figure 10.19 shows changes in the Indian summer monsoon in the historical and future periods.

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How to cite this dataset

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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:

Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A.A. Sörensson, M. Almazroui, A. Dosio, W.J. Gutowski, R. Haarsma, R. Hamdi, B. Hewitson, W.-T. Kwon, B.L. Lamptey, D. Maraun, T.S. Stephenson, I. Takayabu, L. Terray, A. Turner, and Z. Zuo, 2021: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1363–1512, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.012.

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Figure subpanels

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The figure has 6 subpanels. Data for all subpanels is provided.

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List of data provided

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The dataset contains:

APHRODITE station density for June-September (JJAS) 1956

Precipitation June-September (JJAS):

- Model mean bias 1985-2010

- Observed and modelled trends: CRU TS 1950-2000, CMIP6 hist-GHG & hist-aer 1950-2000, and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 2015-2100 trends

- Observed and model relative anomalies over 1950-2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N)

- Modelled change until 2081‒2100 with respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N)

- Trends in relative precipitation anomalies (baseline 1995-2014) over past (1950-2000) and future (2015-2100) period over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N).

- Trend difference between the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the lowest and the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the highest trend

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Data provided in relation to figure

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Panel (a):

APHRODITE station density for JJAS 1956:

- Data file:

Fig_10_19_panel-a_mapplot_APHRODITE_stationdensity_single_mean.nc

Panel (b):

CMIP6 mean precipitation bias June-September mean 1985-2010 mean with respect to CRU TS:

- Data file:

Fig_10_19_panel-b_mapplot_pr_cmip6_bias_pr_cmip6_maps_past_bias_MultiModelMean_bias.nc

Panel (c):

OLS linear precipitation for June-September mean trend of CRU TS 1950-2000 (top left), CMIP6 hist-GHG (bottom left) & hist-aer (bottom right) 1950-2000, and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 2015-2100 (top right):

- Data files:

Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_cmip6_mean_trend_future_pr_cmip6_maps_trend_future_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,

Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_histaer_mean_trend_past_pr_aer_maps_trend_past_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,

Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_histghg_mean_trend_past_pr_ghg_maps_trend_past_MultiModelMean_trend.nc,

Fig_10_19_panel-c_mapplot_pr_obs_mean_trend_past_CRU_single_trend.nc;

Panel (d):

Observed and model relative precipitation June-September mean anomalies over 1950-2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) (CRU TS (brown), GPCC (dark blue), REGEN (green), APHRO-MA (light brown), IITM all-India rainfall (light blue), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey), hist-GHG (light blue) CMIP6 historical/SSP5-8.5 (dark red) and CMIP5 historical/RCP8.5 (dark blue) and Modelled change until 2081‒2100 in respect to 1995-2014 averages over central India (CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 (dark red) and CMIP5 historical/RCP8.5 (dark blue)):

- Data files:

Fig_10_19_panel-d_timeseries.csv,

Fig_10_19_panel-d_boxplot.csv

Panel (e):

OLS linear trends in relative precipitation June-September mean anomalies (baseline 1995-2014) over past (1950-2000) and future (2015-2100) period over central India (lon: 76°E-87°E, lat: 20°N-28°N) of observations (GPCC, CRU TS, REGEN and APRHO-MA: black crosses) and models (individual members of CMIP5 historical-RCP8.5 (blue), CMIP6 historical-SSP5-8.5 (dark red), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink circles), CMIP6 hist-GHG (blue triangles), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey triangles)), and box-and-whisker plots for the SMILEs: MIROC6, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, MPI-ESM, d4PDF (grey shading):

- Data file:

Fig_10_19_panel-e_trends.csv

Panel (f):

June-September mean 2016-2045 OLS linear trend difference in precipitation between the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the lowest and the 3 MPI-ESM runs with the highest trend:

- Data file:

Fig_10_19_panel-f_mapplot_pr_mpige_mean_trend_future_spread_single_trend-difference-min3-max3.nc

Acronyms:

CMIP - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,

APHRODITE - ASIAN PRECIPITATION - HIGHLY-RESOLVED OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTEGRATION TOWARDS EVALUATION OF WATER RESOURCES,

CRU TS- Climatic Research Unit Time Series,

GHG - Greenhouse gas,

IITM - Indian Institute of Technology Madras,

RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway,

DAIMP - Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project,

SSP - Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,

GPCC - GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY CENTRE,

REGEN - Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network, S

MILEs -single model initial-condition large ensembles,

d4PDF - Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change,

MIROC - Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate,

MPI - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie,

ESM - Earth System Model,

Cordex – Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment,

OLS - ordinary least squares regression.

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Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data

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The code for ESMValTool is provided.

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Sources of additional information

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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:

- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website

- Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 10)

- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 10, which contains details on the input data used in Table 10.SM.11

- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.