c92a088715184487a2eab79949dfe497 English 8-bit variable size UCS Transfer Format, based on ISO/IEC 10646 9eba512621144dbaacda1ddb470f885b dataset Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk pointOfContact 2026-05-06T02:05:30 UK GEMINI 2.3 WGS 84 MINERVA: North-West European shelf seas marine climate projections data: spatial two-dimensional 30-year mean climatology ensemble statistics 2016-09-05T11:26:35 publication 2016-09-05T11:26:35 creation https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/c92a088715184487a2eab79949dfe497 c92a088715184487a2eab79949dfe497 Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) http://dx.doi.org/10.5285/76DEFC55-C384-4FBD-863A-84CCF60C1375 doi These climate projections for the North-West European Shelf Seas update the shelf seas component of UKCP09 Marine Report (Lowe et al, 2009) and were funded by the MINERVA project. This dataset contains ensemble statistics for model output based on the QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Projections) ensemble of HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) runs downscaled with the POLCOMS (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System) under SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissons Scenarios - A1B business-as-usual with medium emissions) conditions, from 1952-2098 for which 30-year means anomalies have been calculated from monthly mean data for each of the 12 months. A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of HadCM3 has been downscaled with the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Each of the 11 ensemble members has been downscaled as transient simulations (from 1952-2098) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The PPE (QUMP) was designed to span the range of uncertainty associated with model parameter uncertainty in the atmosphere of the driving global climate model. POLCOMS was run at 12 km resolution, with 32 vertical levels using s-coordinates over the NW European Shelf Seas domain (-18.3 to 14 degrees East, 43 to 63.56 degrees North). Monthly statistics of the model results were recorded. Further details can be found in Tinker et al (2015). Tinker, Jonathan Unavailable author Unavailable author Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) custodian 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk custodian Met Office data_owner 0370 900 0100 Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk owner Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) distributor 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk distributor Pinnegar, John Unavailable principal_investigator Unavailable principalInvestigator Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) point_of_contact 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk pointofContact Tinker, Jonathan Unavailable point_of_contact Unavailable pointofContact Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) publisher 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk publisher notPlanned dataset MINERVA UKCP Marine Climate Climate Projection Uncertainty Climate Downscaling Shelf Seas Temperature SST Salinity Stratification Sea Surface Temperature atmospheric conditions theme GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0 2008-06-01 publication otherRestrictions Access to these data is available to any registered CEDA user. Please Login or Register for a CEDA account to gain access. otherRestrictions Under the following licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/, appropriate use of these data may fall under any use. This message is intended as guidance, always read the full licence. When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record. grid English climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere -18.33 13.0 43.0 63.56 1960-01-01T00:00:00 2098-12-31T23:59:00 NetCDF Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) Data Center Contact 01235446432 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Oxon OX11 0QX United Kingdom support@ceda.ac.uk distributor https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/c92a088715184487a2eab79949dfe497 CEDA Data Catalogue Page Detail and access information for the resource information http://data.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ukcp09/data/marine/minerva/dataset_1/ens_stats DOWNLOAD Download Data download http://www.researchgate.net/publication/248230746_The_potential_impacts_of_climate_change_on_the_hydrography_of_the_northwest_European_continental_shelf Holt et al 2010, The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrography of the northwest European continental shelf No further details. information http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/e/3/SelectingCGMsToDownscale.pdf Selecting members of the 'QUMP' perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS No further details. information http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661115001536 Tinker et al 2015, Validation of an ensemble modelling system for climate projections for the northwest European shelf seas No further details. information http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/media.jsp?mediaid=87850&filetype=pdf Lowe et al 2009, UK Climate Projections Science Report: Marine and Coastal Projections No further details. information http://cobs.noc.ac.uk/modl/polcoms/ Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) No further details. information https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf Nakicenovic et al 2000, IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios No further details. information http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.aspx?Menu=Menu&Module=More&Location=None&Completed=2&ProjectID=19006 Maritime Industries- Environmental Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (MINERVA) No further details. information dataset Commission Regulation (EU) No 1089/2010 of 23 November 2010 implementing Directive 2007/2/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards interoperability of spatial data sets and services 2010-12-08 A Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) of the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AO-GCM, or GCM) HadCM3 is downscaled by the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Monthly mean (and time-step minimum, maximum and variance) 3D (temperature, salinity, u- and v- components of currents) and 2D (surface elevation) fields were saved and the following variables were calculated: SST: Sea Surface Temperature – surface model layer SSS: Sea Surface Salinity – surface model layer NBT: Near-Bed Temperature – bottom model layer NBS: Near-Bed Salinity – bottom model layer DFT: Difference between SST and NBT – surface model layer minus bottom model layer DFS: Difference between SSS and NBS – surface model layer minus bottom model layer PEA: Potential Energy Anomaly (a measure of stratification). MLD: Mixed Layer Depth For the present day and the future: The ensemble mean (ens_mean) is the average of the 30-year means from each of the 11 ensemble members. The ensemble variance (ens_var) is the variance of the 30-year means from each of the 11 ensemble members. The interannual variance (int_var) is the mean of the 30-year variances from each of the 11 ensemble members. The ensemble standard deviation (std_dev) is the standard deviation of the 30-year means from each of the 11 ensemble members. This is the square root of the ensemble variance, and is redundant in the present day and future period – it is included for completeness. For the difference fields (future minus present day): The ensemble mean, ensemble variance and interannual variance are simply the difference between the future and present day fields. The ensemble standard deviation is different - the differences in the future and present day 30-year means from each of the 11 ensemble members are calculated, and these differences are used to calculated the anomaly ensemble standard deviation. It is included to allow the ensemble spread to be given for a warming, or freshening.