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UKCP18 Climate projections and clay shrink-swell susceptibility

Shrink-swell is recognised as the most significant geohazard across Great Britain. This dataset identifies areas of shrink-swell hazard with increased potential due to changing climatic conditions based on forecasts derived from the UKCP18 climate projections. The dataset has been created at two levels of detail for RCP8.5 emissions scenario and dates up to 2070. The Basic dataset is an overview at 2Km grid resolution whilst the more detailed Premium dataset is generated at a 50m resolution. The Open versions are simplified versions of the premium versions and are shared via BGS GeoIndex. The premium versions are paid for products. UKCP18 - UK Climate Projections 2018 project RCP8.5 - A pathway where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unmitigated, leading to a best estimate global average temperature rise of 4.3°C by 2100. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are a method for capturing those assumptions within a set of scenarios.

Simple

Identifier
http://data.bgs.ac.uk/id/dataHolding/13607678
Distributor
  British Geological Survey - Enquiries
Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth , NOTTINGHAM , NOTTINGHAMSHIRE , NG12 5GG , United Kingdom
0115 936 3143
0115 936 3276
Originator
  British Geological Survey - Enquiries
Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth , NOTTINGHAM , NOTTINGHAMSHIRE , NG12 5GG , United Kingdom
0115 936 3143
0115 936 3276
Distributor
  British Geological Survey - Enquiries
Point of contact
  British Geological Survey - Enquiries
Maintenance and update frequency
asNeeded As needed
GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
  • Geology
BGS Thesaurus of Geosciences
  • Climate change
  • Precipitation (meteorology)
  • Rainfall
  • Geohazards
  • Shrink-swell clays
  • UK Location (INSPIRE)
  • Temperature
  • Clays
  • Shrinkage cracks
  • Natural hazards
dataCentre
  • UK Location (INSPIRE)
Keywords
  • NERC_DDC
Access constraints
otherRestrictions Other restrictions
Other constraints
licenceOGL
Other constraints
Available under the Open Government Licence subject to the following acknowledgement accompanying the reproduced NERC materials "Contains NERC materials ©NERC [year]"
Use constraints
otherRestrictions Other restrictions
Other constraints
The copyright of materials derived from the British Geological Survey's work is vested in the Natural Environment Research Council [NERC]. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in a retrieval system of any nature, without the prior permission of the copyright holder, via the BGS Intellectual Property Rights Manager. Use by customers of information provided by the BGS, is at the customer's own risk. In view of the disparate sources of information at BGS's disposal, including such material donated to BGS, that BGS accepts in good faith as being accurate, the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) gives no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the quality or accuracy of the information supplied, or to the information's suitability for any use. NERC/BGS accepts no liability whatever in respect of loss, damage, injury or other occurence however caused.
Other constraints
Available under the Open Government Licence subject to the following acknowledgement accompanying the reproduced NERC materials "Contains NERC materials ©NERC [year]"
Spatial representation type
vector Vector
Metadata language
EnglishEnglish
Topic category
  • Geoscientific information
Geographic identifier
GBN

Date (Revision)
2009

Geographic identifier
GREAT BRITAIN [id=139600]

Date (Creation)
1979

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End date
2019 Before
Unique resource identifier
OSGB 1936 / British National Grid (EPSG::27700)
Distribution format
Distributor
  British Geological Survey - Enquiries
Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth , NOTTINGHAM , NOTTINGHAMSHIRE , NG12 5GG , United Kingdom
0115 936 3143
0115 936 3276
Distributor
  British Geological Survey - Enquiries
OnLine resource
https://www.bgs.ac.uk/geoindex/home.html?src=topNav
Hierarchy level
dataset Dataset
Other
dataset

Conformance result

Date (Publication)
2011
Explanation
See the referenced specification
Pass
No

Conformance result

Date (Publication)
2010-12-08
Explanation
See http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2010:323:0011:0102:EN:PDF
Pass
No
Statement
GeoClimate combines current GB subsidence hazard susceptibility, a GB groundwater model and climate change projections, to project future subsidence hazard. Expert BGS Geological Engineers, Groundwater Geologists and GIS specialists collaborated to generate a robust methodology. The datasets utilised and combined in GeoClimate are: -BGS GeoSure shrink-swell: BGS GB dataset providing geological information on potential clay shrink-swell, providing 5 classes from Hazard Rating A (pre-dominantly non-plastic ground conditions) to Hazard Rating E (predominantly very high plasticity ground conditions) -Zooming Object Oriented Distributed Recharge (ZOODRM) model: Provides gridded daily soil moisture deficit (SMD) values for UK, based on inputted rainfall and surface values. -11 RCM UKCP09 climate models: UKCP09 medium emissions scenario was used to force the 11 Regional Climate Model simulations, providing absolute values to input into GeoClimate. The values provided are continuous daily projections from 1950 to 2099. These datasets are used to produce a GeoClimate Volume Change Potential (VCP) score, which is based on the: -A Days in Drought (DiD) value, calculated from the ZOODRM groundwater model and 11RCM projections, -Modified Plasticity Index (IP') values, extracted from the BGS GeoSure Shrink-Swell layer.
File identifier
b256f87d-0d0f-6c27-e054-002128a47908 XML
Metadata language
EnglishEnglish
Hierarchy level
dataset Dataset
Date stamp
2025-07-13
Metadata standard name
UK GEMINI
Metadata standard version
2.3
Point of contact
  British Geological Survey
Environmental Science Centre, Keyworth , NOTTINGHAM , NOTTINGHAMSHIRE , NG12 5GG , United Kingdom
+44 115 936 3100
Dataset URI
http://data.bgs.ac.uk/id/dataHolding/13607678
 
 

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