Data for Figure 10.11 from Chapter 10 of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Figure. 10.11 shows attribution of historic precipitation change in the Sahelian West African monsoon during June to September.

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How to cite this dataset

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When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates:

Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A.A. Sörensson, M. Almazroui, A. Dosio, W.J. Gutowski, R. Haarsma, R. Hamdi, B. Hewitson, W.-T. Kwon, B.L. Lamptey, D. Maraun, T.S. Stephenson, I. Takayabu, L. Terray, A. Turner, and Z. Zuo, 2021: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1363–1512, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.012.

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Figure subpanels

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The figure has 5 subpanels. Data for all subpanels is provided.

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List of data provided

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The data is annual June-September (JJAS) precipitation means for:

- Observed anomalies over 1920-2018 respect to 1955-1984 average over the Sahel (lon: 20°W-30°E, lat: 10°N-20°N)

- Model anomalies over 1920-2018 respect to 1955-1984 average over the Sahel (lon: 20°W-30°E, lat: 10°N-20°N)

- Observed precipitation difference 1980-1990 mean - 1950-1960 mean

- Model differences between 1.5x and 0.2x aerosol scalings over 1955-1984

- Trends in relative precipitation anomalies (baseline 1955-1984) over decline (1955-1984) and recovery (1985-2014) period over the Sahel (lon: 20°W-30°E, lat: 10°N-20°N)

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Data provided in relation to figure

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Panel (a):

Observed (CRU TS) timeseries anomalies over 1920-2018 in respect to 1955-1984 average over the Sahel (lon: 20°W-30°E, lat: 10°N-20°N):

- Data file:

Fig_10_11_panel-a_timeseries_obs.csv

Panel (b):

Observed (CRU TS) precipitation difference 1980-1990 mean - 1950-1960 mean:

- Data file:

Fig_10_11_panel-b_mapplot_pr_change_CRU_single_mean.nc

Panel (c):

Model differences between 1.5x and 0.2x aerosol scalings over 1955-1984:

- Data file:

Fig_10_11_panel-c_mapplot_pr_diff_SMURPHS_single_mean.nc

Panel (d):

Model timeseries anomalies over 1920-2018 respect to 1955-1984 average over the Sahel (lon: 20°W-30°E, lat: 10°N-20°N) for CMIP6 hist all-forcings (red), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey) and CMIP6 hist-GHG (pale blue):

- Data file:

Fig_10_11_panel-d_timeseries_cmip6.csv

Panel (e):

Observed and modelled OLS linear trends in relative precipitation anomalies (baseline 1955-1984) over decline (1955-1984) and recovery (1985-2014) period over the Sahel (lon: 20°W-30°E, lat: 10°N-20°N): observed data (GPCC, CRU TS: black crosses), 34 CMIP5 models (dark blue circles), individual members of CMIP6 hist all-forcings (red circles), CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink circles), CMIP6 hist-GHG (blue triangles), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey triangles), and box-and-whisker plots for the SMILEs: MIROC6, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, MPI-ESM, d4PDF (grey shading):

- Data file:

Fig_10_11_panel-e_trends.csv;

Acronyms:

CMIP - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,

CRU TS- Climatic Research Unit Time Series,

SMURPHS - Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events,

DAMIP - Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project,

GHG - Greenhouse Gases,

GPCC - GLOBAL PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY CENTRE,

SMILEs -single model initial-condition large ensembles,

CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,

MIROC - Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate,

MPI - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie,

d4PDF - Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change,

OLS - ordinary least squares regression.

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Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data

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The code for ESMValTool is provided.

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Sources of additional information

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The following weblinks are provided in the Related Documents section of this catalogue record:

- Link to the figure on the IPCC AR6 website

- Link to the report component containing the figure (Chapter 10)

- Link to the Supplementary Material for Chapter 10, which contains details on the input data used in Table 10.SM.11

- Link to the code for the figure, archived on Zenodo.