UKCP09 Climate projections and clay shrink-swell susceptibility
Shrink-swell is recognised as the most significant geohazard across Great Britain. This dataset identifies areas of shrink-swell hazard with increased potential due to changing climatic conditions based on forecasts derived from the UKCP09 research project. The dataset has been created at two levels of detail for different climatic scenarios and dates up to 2080. The Basic dataset is an overview at 2Km grid resolution whilst the more detailed Premium dataset is generated at a 50m resolution. The Open versions are simplified versions of the premium versions and are shared via GeoIndex. The premium versions are paid for products. UKCP09 - UK Climate Projections 2009 project
Simple
- Date (Creation)
- 2017-02
Distributor
British Geological Survey
-
Enquiries
0115 936 3276
Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth
,
NOTTINGHAM
,
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE
,
NG12 5GG
,
United Kingdom
0115 936 3143
0115 936 3276
Originator
British Geological Survey
-
Enquiries
0115 936 3276
Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth
,
NOTTINGHAM
,
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE
,
NG12 5GG
,
United Kingdom
0115 936 3143
0115 936 3276
- Maintenance and update frequency
- asNeeded As needed
- GEMET - INSPIRE themes, version 1.0
- BGS Thesaurus of Geosciences
-
- Natural hazards
- Shrinkage cracks
- Climate change
- UK Location (INSPIRE)
- Rainfall
- Subsidence
- Temperature
- Geohazards
- Precipitation (meteorology)
- Shrink-swell clays
- dataCentre
- Keywords
-
- NERC_DDC
- Access constraints
- otherRestrictions Other restrictions
- Other constraints
- licenceOGL
- Use constraints
- otherRestrictions Other restrictions
- Other constraints
- The copyright of materials derived from the British Geological Survey's work is vested in the Natural Environment Research Council [NERC]. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in a retrieval system of any nature, without the prior permission of the copyright holder, via the BGS Intellectual Property Rights Manager. Use by customers of information provided by the BGS, is at the customer's own risk. In view of the disparate sources of information at BGS's disposal, including such material donated to BGS, that BGS accepts in good faith as being accurate, the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) gives no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the quality or accuracy of the information supplied, or to the information's suitability for any use. NERC/BGS accepts no liability whatever in respect of loss, damage, injury or other occurence however caused.
- Other constraints
- Available under the Open Government Licence subject to the following acknowledgement accompanying the reproduced NERC materials "Contains NERC materials ©NERC [year]"
- Spatial representation type
- vector Vector
- Denominator
- 50000
- Metadata language
- EnglishEnglish
- Topic category
-
- Geoscientific information
- Geographic identifier
-
GBN
- Date (Revision)
- 2009
- Geographic identifier
-
GREAT BRITAIN [id=139600]
- Date (Creation)
- 1979
N
S
E
W
))
- End date
- 2020
- Unique resource identifier
- OSGB 1936 / British National Grid (EPSG::27700)
- Distribution format
-
Distributor
British Geological Survey
-
Enquiries
0115 936 3276
Environmental Science Centre, Nicker Hill, Keyworth
,
NOTTINGHAM
,
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE
,
NG12 5GG
,
United Kingdom
0115 936 3143
0115 936 3276
- OnLine resource
- https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/geoclimate-faqs/
- OnLine resource
- https://www.bgs.ac.uk/geoindex/home.html?src=topNav
- Hierarchy level
- dataset Dataset
- Other
- dataset
Conformance result
- Date (Publication)
- 2011
- Explanation
- See the referenced specification
- Pass
- No
Conformance result
- Date (Publication)
- 2010-12-08
- Explanation
- See http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2010:323:0011:0102:EN:PDF
- Pass
- No
- Statement
- Following the initial determinations of the CHANGE model, based on the ZOODRM (zoom object-oriented distributed recharge model) and Future Flows 11RCM (Regional Climate Models) data, and the initial assessment of the shrink-swell susceptible areas, based on the GeoSure Shrink-Swell layer, a new GeoClimate rating for shrink-swell susceptibility was devised. This new rating was based on the Modified Plasticity Index (IP') values, from the BGS GeoSure Shrink-Swell layer, combined with the Days in Drought (DiD) values, from the ZOODRM and Future Flows 11RCM data. DiD grids were calculated for three different climatic scenarios for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2080. Each of these grids was combined with the Shrink-Swell layer to produce a revised Volume Change Potential (VCP) score for the UK. All processing was done within ArcGIS.
- File identifier
- 499457f6-2f81-244e-e054-002128a47908 XML
- Metadata language
- EnglishEnglish
- Hierarchy level
- dataset Dataset
- Date stamp
- 2025-05-07
- Metadata standard name
- UK GEMINI
- Metadata standard version
- 2.3
Point of contact
British Geological Survey
Environmental Science Centre,Keyworth
,
NOTTINGHAM
,
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE
,
NG12 5GG
,
United Kingdom
+44 115 936 3100
- Dataset URI
- http://data.bgs.ac.uk/id/dataHolding/13607114
Overviews

Spatial extent
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Associated resources
Not available