This data represents the probabilistic climate projections component of the past (observed) and future climate scenario projections data, produced as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project. Data has been produced by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, and provides information on changes in 21st century climate for the UK, helping to inform adaptation to a changing climate.

The data represents anomalies with respect to the baseline period 1981-2000, and cover the period 1 Dec 1960 to 30 Nov 2099. Data for 23 river basin regions in the UK is provided.

The Probabilistic Projections were updated on 4th August 2022, to make improvements to the methodology to improve: consistency between maximum, minimum and mean temperature; consistency in the downscaling; statistical treatment of precipitation particularly at the wet and dry extremes; representation of annual and decadal variability; and adjustment of the data in the 1981-2000 baseline period to ensure the anomalies average to zero. The combination of the improvements means that all variables are modified to some degree. For more information, please refer to the UKCP news article and the documents it links to.

On 11th February 2025, the Probabilistic Projections were updated to include information at global warming levels. This information is available for each of the RCP scenarios as cumulative distribution frequency data. Further information about this global warming levels data and approach can be found in the relevant UKCP news article and the guidance document it links to.